How is value either retained or lost for every dollar invested in a kilometre of cycling vs. driving for peak-time travel?

Criteria
Cycling
Driving
Congestion Speed Ratio
(Peak vs. Free Flow Speeds)
-0.23-0.45
Vehicle Cost
(BCS, CAA)
-0.30-0.65
Increased Vehicle Operating Cost
(LRTP)
0.00-0.02
Obesity and Heart Disease Risk
0.0125-0.004
Premature Death0.10.00
Accidents
(LRTP)
0.00-0.01
Vehicle Emissions
(LRTP)
0.00-0.001
Retained Net Social Economic Value0.58-0.14

Background

The city of Copenhagen has produced a working paper for Economic evaluation of cycle projects to assess the social economic costs and benefits of cycling investment. The model evaluates metrics such as:

  • Vehicle Operating Costs
  • Time Costs
  • Accident Costs
  • Recreational Values
  • Health Benefits
  • Safety Costs
  • Comfort Costs

The Region of Peel has a Long Range Transportation Plan – Update 2012 (LRTP) report. However, costs associated with congestion are presented inconsistently, whereas Copenhagen uses a model where cost/benefit is presented per kilometer of cycling investment. The model of calculations used in this document in order to present as $ per KM of investment are as follows:

Calculations and Assumptions

Congestion Speed Ratio

The Congestion Speed Ratio is the ratio of peak-period travel speed to free flow travel speed. It represents value either gained or lost according to expectations of free-flow speed appropriate for the vehicle being considered.

Bicycle Average Peak-Time Travel Speed: 16km/h

The estimated Bicycle Average Speed during peak travel time is calculated from data accumulated from The Bikeport Cycle Survey.

Automobile Median Peak-Time Travel Speed: 16.6km/h

The method for estimating the Automobile Median Speed during peak travel time is detailed on the Commute Trip Measurements page.

Bicycle Free-Flow Travel Speed: 21km/h

Bicycle free-flow speed during peak travel time is an estimate of the 85th percentile of trips speeds from data accumulated in The Bikeport Cycle Survey.

Automobile Free-Flow Travel Speed: 28.9km/h

The estimated Automobile free-flow speed is a product of the Duration calculated on the Commute Trip Measurements page, reversing the effect of the Travel Time Index for the Region of Peel stated in the LRTP report.

  • Ffs = (60 / Du) * Di
  • Ffs = (60 / 33.4) * 9.2
  • Ffs = (60 / (33.4 / 1.75)) * 9.2
  • Ffs = (60 / 19.09) * 9.2
  • Ffs = 3.14 * 9.2
  • Ffs = 28.9 km/h

Bicycle Value: $1,000

The maximum value of a bicycle that will typically be covered for damage or loss under a home insurance policy: $1,000. This value is used when considering the Vehicle Cost of a bicycle.

Annual Bicycle Cost Calculations

Based on the CAA Driving Costs Calculator, the only criteria that applies to a bicycle is Depreciation and Maintenance. This model assumes a depreciation rate of 20% and $100 for repairs annually, $300 in total.

Average Annual Bicycle Mileage: 1,000km

Average annual bicycle mileage is from data accumulated from The BCS.

Automobile Cost and Mileage

Automobile cost and mileage is based on the CAA Car Cost of a Ford F150 pickup truck, the best-selling vehicle in Canada in 2017, with the assumed mileage of 20,000km per year.

Converting Annual Excess Cost of Congestion, Per Capita

Using annual Excess Vehicle Operating Costs from the LRTP as an example:

  • per KM = $89 / 52 weeks
  • per KM = $1.71 / 5 work days per week
  • per KM = $0.34 / 18.4km per day
  • per KM = $0.02

Accidents

  • per KM = $48 / 52 weeks
  • per KM = $0.92 / 5 work days per week
  • per KM = $0.18 / 18.4km per day
  • per KM = $0.01

Emissions

  • per KM = $6 / 52 weeks
  • per KM = $0.12 / 5 work days per week
  • per KM = $0.02 / 18.4km per day
  • per KM = $0.001

Sources

Working paper: Economic evaluation of cycle projects – methodology and unit prices
http://www.cycling-embassy.dk/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/COWI_Economic-evaluation-of-cycle-projects.pdf
Last Accessed: Tuesday, December 19, 2017, 10:30pm

Peel Long Range Transportation Plan – Update 2012
https://www.peelregion.ca/planning/residents/transportation/LRTP-Report.pdf
Last Accessed: Tuesday, December 19, 2017, 3:00pm

The Bikeport Cycle Survey
https://cyclesurvey.bikeport.ca/
Last Accessed: 

Compact Car Driving Cost Per KM provided by Canadian Automobile Association
http://caa.ca/car_costs/
Last Accessed: Wednesday, December 20, 2017, 12:10pm

CAA’s NEW Driving Costs Calculator
https://blog.caasco.com/automotive/caas-new-driving-costs-calculator/
Last Accessed: Friday, March 15, 2019, 12:17am

How To Calculate The Costs Of Driving Your Vehicle
https://ama.ab.ca/2017/06/12/the-calculated-costs-of-driving-your-vehicle
Last Accessed: Thursday, March 14, 2019, 11:20pm